17/06/2024
Can 'crazy' Asian air cargo sustain long-term growth amid volatility?
Joyce Tai, executive vice president of global partnerships at Freightos, summed up the current state of the air cargo market in Asia: Air cargo capacity is rising, but disruptions in the Red Sea and surging demand from e-commerce mean prices are also rising. Asian exports via Japan have been soaring and we are seeing this impact across all air cargo transit hubs in Asia, including HKG (Hong Kong, China), TPE (Taipei, China), SIN(Singapore), NRT(Narita), etc., with cargo volumes up 10% year on year in March and prices expected to rise further during the peak season.
John Peyton Burnett, managing director of TAC Index, said: "All the signs are that we are heading for a tight peak season. And if companies haven't locked in their freight capacity, it may be too late."
As militant attacks in the Red Sea have disrupted the passage of container ships, global supply chain links to Asia have been severely disrupted, with longer shipping times, reduced reliability, port congestion, higher freight rates and a shift to air freight. At the same time, the increasing flow of cross-border e-commerce to Western markets has also added vitality to the air cargo market, resulting in congestion at both origin and transit airports in Asia and higher freight rates on major trade routes. These uncertainties also create market complexities that make it difficult for air cargo professionals to cope with or reasonably predict.
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Joyce Tai, Executive Vice President, Global Partnerships, Freightos:
"Asian exports via Japan have been soaring and we are seeing this impact in all of our air cargo transit hubs in Asia, including HKG (Hong Kong, China), TPE (Chinese Taipei), SIN(Singapore), NRT(Narita) and others."
01
The ripple effect of the Red Sea
Joyce Tai used the word "crazy" to describe the impact of the Red Sea attacks and cargo transfers. No one is prepared for this. The shift of so many different types of cargo from sea to air is too much for many airports and airlines, such as the South Asian countries of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh and the Southeast Asian countries of Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
There are now two different types of congestion in the air cargo industry: originating airports and transit hubs. For example, cargo surges and congestion are occurring at originating airports such as Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai and Bangalore, as well as transit hubs, especially in the Middle East. The source of these demands and shifts lies with retailers in importing countries. Large retailers and e-tailers in the West are shifting their shipments from sea to air because they cannot afford the empty box turnaround cycles in Europe and North America.
Amid growing demand and airport congestion, Joyce Tai observed that South Asian airlines without digital distribution are still struggling compared to digital carriers, resulting in frequent cancellations of bookings and where data can be easily lost, while those with digital capabilities have seen bookings soar by 50%.
In addition, geopolitical situations such as the Russia-Ukraine war will also affect the capacity of the market and ultimately affect freight rates. Xeneta chief Air transport Officer Niall van de Wouw noted that it takes more time to get from Asia to Europe, putting pressure on capacity and costs. If a cargo plane takes 14 hours instead of 12 or 11 hours, that means an increase in cost.
Different parts of Asia were affected by the Red Sea crisis in different ways, with some countries and regions of the Indian subcontinent being particularly affected. Ships departing from Asia through the Cape of Good Hope can be delayed by seven to eight days, but departing from India and Bangladesh can take 10 to 14 days. Because there are no shortcuts in these areas, they all turn to air transport.
According to April 2024 traffic data from the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA), airlines in the region saw a 13.7 percent year-on-year increase in international air cargo demand. Meanwhile, data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) highlights the Asia-Pacific region as the region with the strongest demand growth in the world.
John Peyton Burnett, Managing Director, TAC Index:
"All the signs are that we are heading for a tight season. If you haven't locked in your freight capacity, it's probably too late."
02
The impact of tariff policy
With air cargo volumes growing in recent months, logistics companies are already looking to the future. For example, Kathy Liu, vice president of Dimerco Express Group, noted in her May-June 2024 Asia Pacific Cargo Report that continued increases in ocean freight rates on Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB) routes, driven by strong demand, are expected to impact the air cargo market. From June, more LCL cargo will be diverted to air, especially on TPEB routes, which is similar to the situation in 2021.
In addition, with the new tariffs set to be implemented in August, it is expected that products related to this tariff will surge, thus taking up air and sea capacity to meet the expected arrival date before the tariffs take effect.
In May 2024, the president of the United States announced new trade tariffs on $18 billion worth of Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, solar panels, and semiconductors. On May 31, U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirmed in a statement that it would crack down on small packages or minimum declarations and suspended several customs brokers from participating in the T86 test. The T86 Entry Test is a voluntary U.S. customs program that allows participants to electronically import small shipments worth up to $800 without paying duties and taxes.
In a statement, Customs and Border Protection said, "We are stepping up enforcement to ensure that all participants are held accountable when they break the rules." To date, U.S. Customs has suspended a number of customs brokers from participating in the T86 test because they present unacceptable compliance risks."
Freightos' Tai expressed concern about new legislation and opposition from trade groups in the United States, which could reduce e-commerce traffic. Chinese e-commerce giants TEMU and SHEIN are still filling cargo holds at a rapid pace, but potential legislation and opposition from trade groups could take a toll on e-commerce volumes, freeing up some space.
However, Niall van de Wouw, chief air freight officer at Xeneta, believes that while legislation and crackdown may affect trade and air cargo volumes, there is still a lot of trade between China and the United States. What we're seeing is a shift. Goods are still coming from, or in part coming from, China and being shipped through Vietnam to the United States or Mexico and finally to the United States.
Niall van de Wouw, Chief Air Transport Officer, Xeneta:
"But at that time, we encountered the Red Sea situation and a big increase in e-commerce volumes, which made shippers and forwarders a little bit less comfortable when signing long-term agreements."
03
E-commerce drives air freight growth in Asia
Despite geopolitical and policy influences, there is no denying that the growth of e-commerce in Asia has led to strong demand growth for air cargo. According to December 2023 data from parcel shipping consulting firm ship matrix, China's two e-commerce giants, TEMU and SHEIN, each ship 1 million packages a day to the United States.
In its May-June 2024 Asia Pacific Cargo report, Dimerco noted that unlike traditional trends in the air cargo market, e-commerce has been a key product driving demand. In addition, the shift of production from China to countries such as Thailand and Vietnam has also contributed to the increase in the volume of goods within the Asian market.
Wilson Kwong, CEO of Hong Kong Freight Terminals Limited (Hactl), calls Asia a hot spot for e-commerce. This is partly because of the presence of production powerhouses, led by China, and partly because the increasing industrialisation of Asia is creating wealth and hence demand for foreign luxury goods.
With many countries on lockdown during the pandemic, e-commerce is booming and a lot of shopping is done online. The economy subsequently cooled but has recently returned to strong growth. The reasons for this are unclear, perhaps due to the recovery of some economies and the resulting rise in demand for big-ticket items that are often transported by air.
While mature markets in the United States and Europe remain the main targets for Chinese cross-border e-commerce sellers, new markets are emerging. With the implementation of free trade agreements and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) policies, emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East are emerging as new "gold mines" for cross-border sellers.
In this situation, logistics companies in the Asian region are preparing to take advantage of this potential and opportunity. For example, Pete Chareonwongsak, CEO of Teleport, A logistics company owned by Malaysia's Capital A(formerly AirAsia), spoke about their vision to provide affordable and fast same-day and next-day delivery in Asia. With AirAsia's belly space integrated into its network, Teleport also operates three narrow-body Airbus A321 freighters, with plans to add seven more to deliver two million packages per day by 2025.
Speaking on the growth of e-commerce in Asia and Southeast Asia, Pete Chareonwongsak noted that parcel exports from China to Southeast Asia were $523 billion. That means China now exports more to Southeast Asia than it does to the United States. During the pandemic, e-commerce became a $130 billion industry, and now that the pandemic is over, we expect e-commerce to mature and grow at 20 to 25 percent annually. More importantly, consumer expectations are rising, and cheap or quality delivery is not enough, consumers want cheap, quality and fast delivery services.
Given the rise of fast fashion giant SHEIN and e-commerce giant TEMU, industry observers remain optimistic about the region's e-commerce driven growth for the rest of the year, especially on routes between Asia and Europe and Asia and North America.
Lim Ching Kiat, executive vice president of Air Hubs and Cargo Development at Singapore's Changi Airport Group, noted that one of the strengths of the Asia-Pacific region is the semiconductor industry, which is where ASEAN has seen an increase in foreign investment in recent years. In the long run, the Asia-Pacific region will undoubtedly continue to play an important role in the air cargo space. In particular, ASEAN is expected to play an important role in the manufacturing sector, given the region's abundant resources, cost competitiveness and labor resources. With expected progress in urbanization and industrialization, the region is poised for growth in manufacturing, trade, and logistics.
Wilson Kwong, CEO of Hong Kong Freight Terminals Limited (Hactl) :
"Asia is a hot spot for e-commerce. This is due both to the presence of major producers, led by China, and to the increasing industrialisation of Asia."
While the prospects for the development of the air cargo industry in the Asian region are bright, the current market uncertainty and volatility is also evident in the agreements between shippers and freight forwarders.
In a recent Xeneta TIACA State of the Air webinar, Niall van de Wouw noted that shippers and freight forwarders are now less willing to sign long-term agreements. During previous outbreaks, there was a lot of uncertainty in the market and few long-term agreements in the industry. Later, the market calmed down a bit and shippers and freight forwarders had more in common to reach longer term agreements, but the Red Sea crisis and the huge growth in the volume of e-commerce followed, which made shippers and freight forwarders slightly uneasy when signing long-term agreements.
Because the more long-term agreements a business has, the greater the uncertainty, and the greater the risk if it has a fixed price. So the question on both sides of the table now is: Am I making the deal at the right time, at the right level?
TAC Index's Burnett said the market needs new risk management tools, which are being developed by TAC Index and the Baltic exchange. If you rely entirely on spot capacity, you may not get the best price at the time of booking. Fixing prices in the future is also an option, but it is a riskier strategy given the volatility of prices. So purchasing teams need to change their mindset from fixed budgets to getting the best price.
Whether it is the impact of the Red Sea crisis or the increase in cargo volumes due to e-commerce demand, air cargo industry leaders are skeptical about how long this growth will last and can be sustained in the long term. But no matter how many geopolitical and trade war risks there are, goods will always find their way.