09/28/2026
🌴🌀 TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE — MEXICO & THE PACIFIC ✈️
For anyone travelling to Mexico or watching the tropics, the Eastern Pacific is particularly active right now, with several systems being monitored.
🌀 Hurricane Polo remains the system of greatest concern. As of the latest NHC advisory available to me today, Polo was a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds around 125 mph (205 km/h), located roughly 285 miles (460 km) west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas and moving north-northwest.
The important change is its direction. Polo is expected to turn north and then northeast, approaching Baja California Sur on Monday, crossing the peninsula Monday night and then moving toward northwestern mainland Mexico early Tuesday. Hurricane warnings and watches are in effect for portions of Baja California Sur, with watches also extending into parts of northwestern mainland Mexico.
⚠️ What about Cabo San Lucas?
Polo is passing west of Cabo rather than heading directly into Cabo San Lucas on the current forecast track. However, that does not mean southern Baja is completely unaffected. Large swells, dangerous surf, rip currents and coastal conditions can occur well away from the hurricane’s centre.
🌀 Tropical Storm Odalys is well west of Baja California and is rapidly weakening. The NHC expected it to become post-tropical, so it is considerably less concerning for Mexico travel than Polo.
🌀 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E has also formed south of Mexico. It is forecast to strengthen while remaining offshore and moving generally west-northwest, roughly parallel to Mexico’s southern coast. This is another system worth watching over the next few days, although there were no coastal watches or warnings with its initial advisory.
And there is another area of low pressure farther out in the Pacific that the NHC says has a high chance of tropical development during the next seven days.
✈️ TRAVEL TAKEAWAY: If you’re travelling to Mexico’s Pacific coast or Baja California Sur over the next several days, keep an eye on your airline, resort and tour-provider updates. Weather well outside the centre of a hurricane can still affect flights, marine excursions, beaches and local transportation.
Forecasts can — and do — change, so I’ll continue watching the official updates as these systems develop.