17/08/2026
EUA Market Weekly Update | 10–14 August 2026
EUA prices entered a consolidation phase this week as the market gave back part of its recent recovery gains.
📊 EUA Auction Market
The latest EUA auction saw 7.74 million EUAs sold at €82.44/tCO₂ on 14 August.
The auction price increased from €81.36/tCO₂ on 10 August to €82.44/tCO₂, representing a €1.08 (+1.33%) weekly increase. The average cover ratio stood at 1.68, indicating continued participation in the auction market.
📉 Spot Market: Mild Correction
The EUA spot market opened at €82.04 and closed at €81.17, recording a 1.06% weekly decline.
Prices traded between €80.85 and €82.13, with repeated attempts to recover towards €82 facing selling pressure.
Despite the correction, the broader trend remains constructive. Spot prices continue to trade above the EMA20 at €80.99, although momentum has weakened.
The MACD histogram turned negative at -0.08, suggesting that short-term selling momentum has overtaken the previous bullish momentum.
Key levels to watch:
Support: €80.00–€80.70
Resistance: €82.10–€82.50
📈 Dec-26 Futures
The EUA Dec-26 Futures contract also experienced a correction, declining 1.42% over the week.
Futures opened at €83.26 and closed at €82.08, trading between €81.62 and €83.50.
The contract remains slightly above its EMA20 of €81.94, keeping the broader short-term structure mildly bullish. However, weakening momentum points towards increasing consolidation.
Key levels:
Support: €81.60–€82.00
Resistance: €83.20–€83.50
A sustained break above €83.50 could improve the short-term outlook, while a move below €81.60–€82.00 could indicate a deeper correction.
🌍 Market Positioning & Supply
Speculative EUA net-long positions rebounded during the week ending 7 August after reaching a 10-week low. The recovery in bullish positioning suggests renewed trader confidence and could provide short-term support to EUA prices.
Meanwhile, EEX has published the 2027 EU ETS auction calendar, with approximately 339.5 million EUAs scheduled for auction through the common auction platform.
Greater visibility on future EUA supply could limit scarcity expectations and act as a neutral-to-bearish factor unless demand strengthens significantly.
🛢️ Oil, Hormuz & Carbon Markets
Oil markets are also influencing the carbon outlook.
Brent eased towards $88/bbl after a six-session rally, while uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continues to support geopolitical risk premiums.
For carbon markets, prolonged disruption could remain supportive:
EU ETS: Higher energy prices and tighter oil supply could provide modest bullish support to EUA sentiment.
EU Maritime ETS: Longer shipping routes and increased fuel consumption could raise emissions exposure and increase EUA requirements.
FuelEU Maritime: Higher fuel consumption could increase compliance pressure on vessels.
🔎 Market Outlook
Short term: Moderately bullish but volatile, particularly while Hormuz disruption and geopolitical uncertainty persist.
Medium term: Downside risks could increase if Hormuz reopens and energy supply conditions normalise.
Overall, the EUA market remains structurally supported above key technical levels, but fading momentum and increased supply visibility suggest that consolidation may continue before the next significant directional move.
For shipowners, operators and energy-intensive businesses, monitoring EUA prices, auction supply, market positioning and geopolitical developments remains critical for effective carbon-cost planning and compliance strategy.
