02/04/2026
The "Ostrich Effect"
It’s described as “a cognitive bias where people avoid, ignore, or deny uncomfortable or negative information, such as financial, health, or performance data. Named for the myth that ostriches bury their heads in the sand to avoid danger, this behavior helps individuals avoid short-term emotional discomfort but usually leads to worse long-term outcomes.”
There are two main points to this:
Information Avoidance: People intentionally avoid learning facts, such as failing to check medical results or avoiding performance feedback, because they fear the information will be unpleasant or damaging
Consequences: Ignoring problems often leads to their escalation, causing greater costs (financial, emotional, or physical) in the long run.
In a study published in Psychological Science, the research team led by postdoctoral scholar Radhika Santhanagopalan, PhD’25, discovered that as children aged, the tendency to avoid information grew stronger. In their initial experiment, the researchers looked at five reasons why we might willfully choose to remain ignorant:
1. To avoid negative emotions like anxiety or disappointment
2. To avoid negative information about our own likability or competence
3. To avoid challenges to our beliefs
4. To protect our preferences
5. To act in our own self-interest (perhaps while trying to appear not self-interested)
Santhanagopalan admits that there are some good reasons to avoid negative information. Information can overwhelm, threaten, and paralyze. However, excessive avoidance can also have severe negative consequences, such as deepening political polarization or ideological rigidity. Which is where we are now. As a whole, the war affects all of humanity, where women, little boys, and girls, and even babies are killed. Where schools, hospitals, and clinics are indiscriminately bombed.
We are not affected directly, but that should affect us, as it pertains to morality. Though some choose not to be aware, or shut off information because we’re thousands of kilometers away from the Middle East, we are directly affected, because we are burdened by the effects of a war we have nothing to do with. Not convinced we are affected? Just go to the nearest gas station and check the prices of gasoline and diesel. That will knock you back to reality.
I understand. In a world of information overload, it can feel soothing to stick your head in the sand. If something ails you and you don’t like what the doctor says, it’s easy: just don’t make a follow-up appointment. If your favorite politician says something you don’t like, simply move on to the next news article and act as if you didn't just see what you did. These actions, avoiding uncomfortable information is common, that’s the “Ostrich effect.”
We were all curious when we were younger. But as we grow older, many choose to modify their behavior, no longer involving themselves in matters that are inconvenient. We’ve seen this at various stages in our lives: “Shhh, don’t mind that. Just focus on yourself.” We’ve seen this many times.
Today, let’s focus on how some people have taken this approach regarding the war in the Middle East:
“Don’t mind them in the Middle East. Ang layo natin sa Pilipinas.” “Hayaan mo na sila. Hindi natin problema yan.” “Wala tayong pakialam kasi hindi natin Presidente si Trump.” “ Ayaw na ug saba, kay wala tay’ labot anang gera.” “Hilum nalang diha, kay tingali nay ma offend kung mag saba ka. Don’t say anything, it might offend others.”
Well, unfortunately, we are affected, and we feel the effects. As I mentioned above, just go to the nearest gasoline station (especially on a Tuesday), and any isolationist view you have will go flying out the window.
Some manufacturers have held off on raising prices, with commitments to the government to delay price increases as much as possible, which is good news for the consumers. But with the price of diesel in the Philippines increasing about 80% (one of the highest increases in the world), how long can they keep that promise? This uncertainty leads to further questions: What if the war does not end soon? What if, even after the war ends, damaged oil facilities in the Middle East take a long time to repair?
With recent pronouncements from several US officials and over 20,000 troops transported to the Middle East in the past few days, a ground war looks increasingly likely. Initial statements suggested this would be a two-week war. But as some would say, the hardest part of a two-week war is the first two years. Polymarket puts the odds of when the war between the US/Israel and Iran will end:
April 15: 13%
April 30: 30%
May 31: 46%
June 30: 61%
Dec. 31, 2026: 73%
I know, it can be stressful reading the news. It adds to our already raised anxiety. But burying your head in the sand, choosing to ignore what’s going on around you, will only make things worse. Understand that there are many things we have no control over. But being informed will help us navigate these troubling times. Like purchasing fuel. Yes, we do not have control over the prices, but knowing when the price increase will take effect and by how much will allow us to plan our budget and even when to buy gasoline.
This week is Holy Week, and today is Maundy Thursday. I have to share that I love what Pope Leo has been doing, and he’s being vocal about the war. He has pointed out how wrong it is and how wrong people are to use the Bible to justify it. Last Sunday, Pope Leo made a public statement – “Jesus is the King of Peace, who rejects war, whom no one can use to justify war. He does not listen to the prayers of those who wage war, but rejects them.”
