10/23/2026
The holiday forecast just got more complicated.
While the NRF still projects 4.2% holiday sales growth toward $1 trillion+, two new surveys from Circana and Simon-Kucher point the other way, with projected declines in consumer holiday budgets of up to 5.5%.
The common thread in every study: shoppers are starting earlier, expecting higher prices, and trusting advertised deals less than ever.
Smart brands will win on transparency and genuine value, not bigger markdown banners.
Full story via Dive:
https://zurl.co/HdDdR
Some of the latest projections suggest spending could drop, but even those that predict growth recognize consumers are pressured.