Camp Richardson Marina

08/15/2026

¡Buenos días, my friends
Cup’☕️ ’Joe in hand, , Frothy @14.9. Second straight morning with an empty board. The 0142 AFD out of NWS Reno lists no watches, no warnings, no advisories for either California or Nevada. The shortwave that ran us for three days has exited north, and high pressure is building over the Great Basin, so the airmass over the basin is drier and more stable than it has been all week.

Here is the honest shape of the day, and it is a day of two halves. Sunny and 73º degrees at the shore, with the lake zone 70º to 77º. Sunrise to 1100 is the prize: 2 to 4 knots of glass on 69.2º water with waves under a foot. Then the switch throws around 1300, and the westerly zephyr fills, 10 gusting 12 knots at 1400 and topping out at 12 gusting 14 knots WSW at 1700 before it quits by 2000. That is roughly double yesterday's ceiling. Mornings belong to Surf, SUP, and Foil. The afternoon finally gives Sail krews something real to work with. If you want the land option, Tallac goes cool at dawn, and the Pope-Baldwin path is clean before it fills up. UV is very high under a cloudless ridge, so cover up. Sunrise 0613, sunset 1954.

The week ahead is the most settled stretch since late July. High pressure locks in and holds: sunny 76º Sunday, 78º Monday, 79º Tuesday, 80º Wednesday and Thursday, 79º Friday, nights 47º to 52º, with a daily afternoon zephyr and ridge gusts 20 to 22 knots. Waves stay under a foot all seven days. Water reads 69.2º, down a tenth on the morning comparison, and lake level is flat at 6,228.29 for a third day. The only weather anywhere in the region is a 15 percent chance of evening storms over Mineral County, far to the southeast. Watch the 22nd, where the GEFS breaks the ridge down for a monsoon return, and the European ensemble keeps it east.

Two tracks worth your attention. On the Super El Niño watch, CPC's August 13 discussion moved the numbers up: better than 90 percent odds of a very strong event through both fall and winter, and a 69 percent chance the October through December season sets a record going back to 1950. MEI.v2 for June and July came in at plus 2.41, the highest in the modern record. One caution, because these get mixed constantly, CPC states its odds in RONI, not the conventional Niño3.4 reading of plus 2.6. A very strong El Niño loads the dice for a wet Sierra without settling which half of the range collects. . AND the caveat insert - WE have a few MET's tracking, citing, and calling for the Niño-heavy to be primarily targeted over the lower-half of CA, yes, SoCal, New Mexico, Arizona…

Down south, the access story is the story, and I owe you a correction. Yesterday I reported that Portillo's road reopened on August 10. It did not. Paso Los Libertadores has been closed continuously since July 14; today is day 33, the longest shutdown since the crossing opened in 1980. The detail that matters: the roadway itself has been cleared with both lanes usable since late July, but Chile holds it administratively closed because Ruta 60-CH doubles as the international freight corridor, so Portillo sits four to five km below a shut border pass looking at clean pavement it cannot use. The resort is open anyway, turning 12 of 14 lifts on 283 cm, reaching guests by helicopter. More than 1,550 trucks are parked on the Argentine side, costing roughly 1.2 million dollars a day, and the government points to Monday the 17th as an evaluation date, not a promise. Valle Nevado takes 37 to 38 cm today with all 13 lifts and all 45 slopes open. Termas de Chillan holds 124 cm at the summit with 15 lifts running. Australia is the mirror image: Spencers Creek measured 94.5 cm, already past the 85.1 cm of 2006 but running a little under half the long-term average peak near 195 cm, with Thredbo spinning all 15 lifts on nothing new in 48 hours. New Zealand holds firm spring corduroy, Mt Hutt 109 to 170 cm.

“But this being on Earth is a time for us to learn to be good, to learn to be more loving, to learn to be more compassionate. And you learn, not theoretically. You learn when something happens that tests
you.” ― Dalai Lama XIV

Full Tahoe Sector report: https://bit.ly/LakeTahoeWeather

Stay'nThirsty for POW
Coop | RS #69

08/14/2026

08/14/2026

Get'n ready for the weekend ahead here at Camp Richardson Marina, cooler temps, sunshine, and good vibes all the way around...
Stay'nThirsty for POW
Coop

08/14/2026

¡Buenos días, my friends
Cup’☕️ ’Joe in hand, # FreakFlagFly'nFriday @14.7. Both NWS watches came down at once. The Flood Watch that covered the Greater Lake Tahoe Area and the Fire Weather Watch for the basin expired Thursday evening, and the 0208 AFD from NWS Reno lists nothing for California or Nevada. First fully clean sheet in three days. Yesterday earned those products in full: widespread cells, rain rates over an inch an hour, hail, flooding in spots, outflow that rewrote the wind. Today is the residual, not a repeat.

Mostly sunny 68º at the shore, lake zone 67º to 73º. Big Blue reads 69.3º at the mid-lake buoys, down 0.7º, the biggest single-day drop of the season and the storm's fingerprint. Lake level holds at 6,228.29 feet. The buoy sits at 1 to 3 knots from sunrise straight through 1500, waves under a foot, then a soft southwest 5 gusting 7 at 1600 and 5 gusting 8 into 1900 before it folds to a single knot by 2100. Sunrise 0606, sunset 2001.

That is the best SUP, Surf and Foil card in three weeks. Run the Pope to Baldwin shoreline mile on flat water, take a long Surfing set on glass, or trade the lake for a Tallac hike and a Pope-Baldwin path spin while the pavement is dry and clean. Sail people, today is not yours: peak is 6 knots at 1700.

The one asterisk: 20% isolated showers between 1100 and 1400, most of it east of the basin. Where cells do organize near and east of US-95, they can throw outflow gusts to 39 knots and small hail with no notice.

Ahead, the door shuts on the wet pattern. A drier airmass locks in behind the departing system and holds through much of next week: sunny 71º Saturday, 73º Sunday, 72º Monday and Tuesday, 73º Wednesday and Thursday, nights 49º to 52º, ridge gusts 18 to 20 knots, no fire weather or flood products on the board. Humidity eases without touching July's extremes.

🚨Two tracks worth watching.🚨 - The Pacific is still parked at the top of the scale: the latest published weekly Niño3.4 anomaly reads +2.6C with subsurface anomalies to +6C at 50 to 150 meters, and CPC holds the El Niño Advisory with better than 90% odds of a very strong Northern Hemisphere fall and winter and 81% that October through December itself lands very strong. That would rank among the largest events since 1950. The analogs cut both ways: 1982-83 and 1997-98 delivered, 2015-16 peaked just as strong and underdelivered at Tahoe because the storm track set up too far north. Placement matters more than magnitude. Track the data, …

Down south, Chile reloads. A three-day Andes system starts today, peaks Saturday night, and stacks 45 to 60 cm on Portillo, 25 to 40 cm on Valle Nevado, and 15 to 25 cm on Termas de Chillan through Sunday, with freezing levels sliding from 9,800 feet toward 7,400 so it falls cold to the base. Portillo already holds 285 cm upper and 175 cm lower, still the deepest lift-served snowpack on Earth, running 7 of 13 lifts. Ruta 60-CH, the only road in or out, is open on its fourth clean day since an unprecedented 24-day closure ended August 10, and this storm is the first real test of that access, so expect fresh closure windows during the heaviest block. Valle Nevado is the fullest report, with 16 of 17 lifts and all 40 km of pistes open at 180 cm. Termas de Chillan holds 125 cm with 15 of 16 lifts open, still riding its 91 cm early-August dump. Australia went the other way entirely: Thredbo sits at 87 cm with its piste state downgraded to artificial cover and nothing on the board until the 20th, leaving the season chasing the Spencers Creek benchmarks of a 183 cm ten-year era average peak against a 197 cm long-term average. August 14 down south rides like February 14 up north, peak base lands late August into early September, and every centimeter falling in the Andes this weekend is a deposit in the account for the season ahead.

“If you approach others with the thought of compassion, that will automatically reduce fear and allow an openness with other people. It creates a positive, friendly atmosphere. With that attitude, you can approach a relationship in which you, yourself, initially create the possibility of receiving affection or a positive response from the other person. And with that attitude, even if the other person is unfriendly or doesn't respond to you in a positive way, then at least you've approached the person with a feeling of openness that gives you a certain flexibility and the freedom to change your approach as needed.”
― Dalai Lama, The Art of Happiness

Full Tahoe Sector report: https://bit.ly/LakeTahoeWeather

Stay'nThirsty for POW
Coop | RS #69

08/13/2026

¡Buenos días, my friends
Cup’☕️ ’Joe in hand, - 14.7. Tahoeians, the dry streak ends at twenty-three the loud way. The low off the California coast ejects north late this morning, and the afternoon belongs to the storms: 40% at the shore mainly after 11 AM, cells firing on the eastern Sierra between 1000 and noon and over western Nevada noon to 1400, with the cores running rain rates of 1-2+ inches per hour, frequent lightning, strong outflow, and hail to 1 inch. The basin rides the western fringe of it, but fringe is not immune: thunder anywhere on Big Blue means in immediately.

The board actually simplified overnight. The Fire Weather Watch is CANCELLED, humidity recovered, and dew points climbed into the 40ºs and 50ºs, leaving one product: a Flood Watch through this evening for the western Nevada zones, the Reno-Carson valleys from 1300, and Mono County, with the burn scars near the Bug and Stallion fires the biggest concern.

The morning is the froth window, so get out and get'cha some. Partly sunny 68º on 70º Big Blue glass, buoy at 1-4 knots until about 1100, waves under a foot: a perfect SUP card, and prime boat water for Surf and Foil, rope up, drop in, let go in the pocket and free surf, or pump your own line, no wind required. A shoreline run or Pope-Baldwin path spin fits before the sky loads, then in at the first rumble, no negotiation. Tonight the low exits and the whole board goes clean: sunny 69º Friday with the forecast breeze traded for glass, 71-72º through Monday, 70º into midweek, light winds, and crisp 47-50º nights, the best Tallac hike, Sail, and Chillax stretch in two weeks and a legitimate reason to froth.

The long game keeps loading on both tracks. The Pacific holds past the super line at +2.6C on the weekly Niño3.4 reading, with CPC/IRI carrying 81% odds of a very strong peak October through December and ECMWF projecting record strength into January; the analogs, 1982-83 and 1997-98, sit among the biggest Sierra winters on record. And down south, the winter pauses with a full bank account: Australia just banked its biggest cycle of the season, Thredbo near 86cm up top with 13 of 15 lifts after 8cm in 48 hours, Falls Creek 59cm and settling, both clearing between polar rounds. Chile rides deep: Portillo holds 285cm, the deepest snowpack on Earth, on a third clean day of Ruta 60-CH access since the 24-day closure ended, Valle Nevado runs 90-180cm on chains and one-way windows, Termas de Chillan holds 66cm with 13 of 17 lifts, and New Zealand carries excellent coverage into firm spring cord.

“Many, many millions in the world today are hungry. It's not your fault, but you woke up from a warm bed, you were able to have a shower, you put on clean clothes, and you were in a home that is warm in the winter. Now just think of the many who are refugees who wake up in the morning, and there's not very much protection for them against the rain that is pelting down. Perhaps there is no warmth or food or even just water. It is to say, in a way, yes, it is to say really, you do want to count your blessings."
― Dalai Lama XIV

Full Tahoe Sector report: https://bit.ly/LakeTahoeWeather

Stay'nThirsty for POW
Coop | RS #69

08/12/2026

¡Buenos días, my friends
Cup’☕️ ’Joe in hand, - 13.1. Tahoeians, day twenty-two is the last page of the dry streak, and the ledger flipped with it. Two NEW watches this morning: a Flood Watch from this afternoon through Thursday evening for western Nevada zones including the Nevada side of the basin, and a Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for the basin northward, where dry lightning outside the rain cores is the risk from Thursday daybreak, with the Bug and Stallion fires still working.

The day itself still rides. Mostly cloudy, 74º at the shore on 70.4º Big Blue water, buoy at 1-3 knots until about 1300, then the southwest fills at 1500, 8 gusting 12 and peaking near 10 at 1600. SUP, Surf, and Foil own the short-term morning flat-water, and there is time for a Tallac leg or a Pope-Baldwin path spin before the sky loads. From midday, eyes up: a slight chance for t-showers sits on the lake card.

Tonight the first cells can brush the basin after 0200, and Thursday is the wet peak: 50% at the shore mainly after 0800, high 68º, morning lightning possible at daybreak, and a few severe cells east of the Sierra capable of 52-knot outflow and hail near 1 inch. Then the reward: Friday through Monday runs sunny and below average at 70-72º, Friday the honest wind day with buoy gusts to 17 knots, and nights of 46º-49º putting bite back in the mornings, a prime Chillax stretch on Big Blue.

The long game keeps loading on both tracks. The Pacific has crossed the super line: the daily Niño3.4 index hit +2.52C this week, past the +2.5C super-class threshold, with CPC/IRI carrying 81% odds of a very strong peak October through December and ECMWF projecting record strength into January. And the southern winter just flipped its own script: Australia is breaking out of a record-low season on the biggest storm cycle of its year, Thredbo at 86cm with 8cm fresh in 48 hours and 13 of 15 lifts, Falls Creek at 59cm after 10cm in 24 hours, with the ten-day window projected to stack as much snow as the previous two months. Chile sits deep and settled: Portillo holds 285cm, the deepest snowpack on Earth, with Ruta 60-CH open again after its historic 24-day closure, Valle Nevado rides 90-170cm on chains and one-way windows, Termas de Chillan holds 66cm with 13 of 17 lifts, and New Zealand carries its best conditions of the season into firm spring corduroy.

As we take the slow-ride through , into the Labor Day weekend ahead, let's start the pre-season prep, and start get'n ready for the 'n season ahead. Gotta love Tahoe, Summer, sails, surfs, rides, hikes, sunrises & sunsets, then right back into 'n season :) Got your POW’Hunt’nTag?

“Within all beings there is the seed of perfection. However, compassion is required in order to activate that seed which is inherent in our hearts and minds....” ― Dalai Lama XIV

Full Tahoe Sector report: https://bit.ly/LakeTahoeWeather

Stay'nThirsty for POW
Coop | RS #69

08/12/2026

¡Buenos días, my friends
Cup’☕️ ’Joe in hand, - 13.1. Tahoeians, day twenty-two is the last page of the dry streak, and the ledger flipped with it. Two NEW watches this morning: a Flood Watch from this afternoon through Thursday evening for western Nevada zones including the Nevada side of the basin, and a Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for the basin northward, where dry lightning outside the rain cores is the risk from Thursday daybreak, with the Bug and Stallion fires still working.

The day itself still rides. Mostly cloudy, 74º at the shore on 70.4º Big Blue water, buoy at 1-3 knots until about 1300, then the southwest fills at 1500, 8 gusting 12 and peaking near 10 at 1600. SUP, Surf, and Foil own the short-term morning flat-water, and there is time for a Tallac leg or a Pope-Baldwin path spin before the sky loads. From midday, eyes up: a slight chance for t-showers sits on the lake card.

Tonight the first cells can brush the basin after 0200, and Thursday is the wet peak: 50% at the shore mainly after 0800, high 68º, morning lightning possible at daybreak, and a few severe cells east of the Sierra capable of 52-knot outflow and hail near 1 inch. Then the reward: Friday through Monday runs sunny and below average at 70-72º, Friday the honest wind day with buoy gusts to 17 knots, and nights of 46º-49º putting bite back in the mornings, a prime Chillax stretch on Big Blue.

The long game keeps loading on both tracks. The Pacific has crossed the super line: the daily Niño3.4 index hit +2.52C this week, past the +2.5C super-class threshold, with CPC/IRI carrying 81% odds of a very strong peak October through December and ECMWF projecting record strength into January. And the southern winter just flipped its own script: Australia is breaking out of a record-low season on the biggest storm cycle of its year, Thredbo at 86cm with 8cm fresh in 48 hours and 13 of 15 lifts, Falls Creek at 59cm after 10cm in 24 hours, with the ten-day window projected to stack as much snow as the previous two months. Chile sits deep and settled: Portillo holds 285cm, the deepest snowpack on Earth, with Ruta 60-CH open again after its historic 24-day closure, Valle Nevado rides 90-170cm on chains and one-way windows, Termas de Chillan holds 66cm with 13 of 17 lifts, and New Zealand carries its best conditions of the season into firm spring corduroy.

As we take the slow-ride through , into the Labor Day weekend ahead, let's start the pre-season prep, and start get'n ready for the 'n season ahead. Gotta love Tahoe, Summer, sails, surfs, rides, hikes, sunrises & sunsets, then right back into 'n season :) Got your POW’Hunt’nTag?

“Within all beings there is the seed of perfection. However, compassion is required in order to activate that seed which is inherent in our hearts and minds....” ― Dalai Lama XIV

Full Tahoe Sector report: https://bit.ly/LakeTahoeWeather

Stay'nThirsty for POW
Coop | RS #69

08/11/2026

¡Buenos días, my friends
Cup’☕️ ’Joe in hand, , - 11.9. Day twenty-one of the dry run, and it is a good one. Sunny wall to wall, 81º at CRM with Big Blue highs 76º to 84º, water at 70.6º off the mid lake buoy, waves under a foot, lake steady at 6,228.29. No advisories anywhere on the regional ledger for the second straight day.

The wind runs the familiar two acts with an earlier curtain: buoy at 1-2 knots from sunrise through 1400, then the westies fill at 1500, a full hour ahead of Monday, 8 knots gusting 13 on the fill and peaking near 10 through 1700 before easing after 1900. NWS carries west around 9 knots for the afternoon.

This afternoon the fire load returns east and north of the basin. West gusts of 20-30 mph meet humidity of 10-15% from far NE California into NW Nevada; crews are working the Bug, Fred Mountain, and Stallion fires north of Reno, and smoke rides thickest through each morning. Zero sparks, no exceptions, and give the crews room on the roads.

Then the flip is real, and it has a schedule. A low off the California coast pulls precipitable water over an inch into the region: Wednesday goes mostly cloudy with patchy smoke and a 30% midday storm chance at the shore, Wednesday night runs 40%, and Thursday is the wet peak, showers likely with a possible thunderstorm at 60% and a high near 70º, the coolest day of the week. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding are the stated threats, with a legitimate shot at wetting rains on the fires. Friday clears it out: sunny 72º to 74 º through the weekend with nights near 47º.

Surf, SUP, and Foil own the last storm-free morning of the week, sunrise to 1400 on glass. Sail takes the 1500 to 1900 window on the early west. From Wednesday, thunder owns the card: outflow near any cell is an immediate danger on open water, so when it builds, head in. Sunset 2005.

“When you talk, you are only repeating what you already know. But if you listen, you may learn something new.” ― The Dalai Lama

Full Tahoe Sector report: https://bit.ly/LakeTahoeWeather

Stay'nThirsty for POW
Coop | RS #69

08/10/2026

¡Buenos días, my friends
Cup’☕️ ’Joe in hand, , Day twenty, 11.9. All heat warnings and advisories have ended; the carries nothing, and for the first time in over a week the regional ledger reads NONE top to bottom. The board says 79º on 70.9º water, sunny morning going partly cloudy, waves under a foot wall to wall, lake steady at 6,228.29.

The wind writes a two-act day: buoy near 2 knots from sunrise through the morning, dead calm around 1400, then the fastest fill of the stretch, southwest jumping to 8 knots with a gust to 14 at 1600 and running 5-8 through 1900 before standing down after 2000. NWS carries southwest around 9 knots for the afternoon and evening.

The heat is done, but the work is not; it just changed hands. Krews are on the fire lines at the Bug and Fred Mountain fires and other wildfires working in Washoe and Douglas counties; this afternoon runs 2-5 hours of near-critical fire weather on westerly gusts of 22-30 knots with humidity down to 7-15%, and smoke rides from the Oregon border through Reno-Sparks to Fernley and Fallon. Take a minute today for the firefighters grinding through it and the families breathing it. Zero sparks, no exceptions, and give the crews room on the roads.

Heat relief is genuinely on the map: deeper moisture advances Tuesday through Thursday with precipitable water near an inch and a coastal low for forcing. Tuesday puts a slight storm chance back on the lake card, Wednesday and Thursday bring the real storms with heavy rain and flash flood threats plus a legitimate shot at wetting rains on the fires, and the board cools the whole way down, 76º, 75º, then the 73º floor Thursday and Friday with nights 53º to 55º.

Surf, SUP, and Foil own the early morning sessions, sunrise to 1400 with the lightest traffic since last Monday. Sail takes the 1600 to 2000 window, then Tuesday serves the west at 8-10 gusting 15 with one eye on the crest. Sunset 2006.

“You are made for perfection, but you are not yet perfect. You are a masterpiece in the making.”
― Dalai Lama XIV

Full Tahoe Sector report: https://bit.ly/LakeTahoeWeather

Stay'nThirsty for POW
Coop | RS #69

08/09/2026

¡Buenos días, my friends
Cup’☕️ ’Joe in hand, , -12.76. Day nineteen of the dry run with and finally get'n a wind day. CRM log'n 82º on water that climbs 0.6º to 71.3º, a new season high for the second straight morning. The NE buoy sits pinned at 1-2 knots from sunrise to about 1400, then the switch throws: westie around 9 knots on the lake with buoy gusts to 12 from 1600 through the dinner hour before it stands down around 2100. Waves under a foot wall to wall, lake steady at 6,228.29, no advisories on the lake zone.

The thunder card moves out of the neighborhood: the fresh 0247 AFD confines the 10-30% chances to Mono County eastward into southern Lyon, Mineral, and southern Churchill counties, where 45-55 mph outflow is the hazard and DCAPE over 1700 J/kg could push isolated severe gusts past 60mph. The basin holds 10% or less. The trade is fire: W/SW gusts of 22-26knots, locally 30+, with RH down to 5-15% and four named fires already working the Sierra Front, the Bug, Hunter, Double Springs, and Ruby. Zero sparks, no exceptions.

Below the rim, the heat products serve their final day: Heat Advisory and Extreme Heat Warning both expire 0800 Monday as the Pacific trough folds the ridge. Overnight winds pull Oregon smoke over far NW Nevada and NE California, with Bug Fire smoke near Reno. The lake holds the mild lane, but UV runs very high and a summer Sunday means loaded boats and short sight lines. Watch your wake.

SUP, Surf and Foil own the morning glass on the warmest water of the year; log it early, the lanes close fast. Sail takes the afternoon: west around 9knots from mid-afternoon with buoy gusts to 12 through 2000, then Monday raises it, southwest around 9 gusting 22, the windiest card of the week. From there the board slides 79º, 78º, 77º, 75º, 73º as deeper moisture arrives Tuesday onward and storms build daily mid to late week, flash flooding the favored threat. Hydrate, shade up, life jackets on, every discipline, every day. Sunset 2007.

“Compassion can be roughly defined in terms of a state of mind that is nonviolent, nonharming, and nonaggressive. It is a mental attitude based on the wish for others to be free of their suffering and is associated with a sense of commitment, responsibility, and respect towards others.” ― Dalai Lama XIV

Full Tahoe Sector report: https://bit.ly/LakeTahoeWeather

Stay'nThirsty for POW
Coop | RS #69