09/10/2026
Kenya has announced a proposed $3 billion electric vehicle investment involving Endelevu Enterprise Corporation and China's Geely. The proposal includes annual production capacity for 50,000 four-wheel vehicles and 100,000 two-wheelers, alongside 1,000 solar-powered charging hubs.
The agreement remains a memorandum of understanding, with financing and implementation arrangements still to be finalised.
China dominates global electric vehicle and battery manufacturing through enormous production scale, advanced technology, competitive pricing and integrated supply chains. Establishing production operations in Africa extends its industrial reach, develops regional markets and strengthens its commercial position.
China has clear vested interests in Kenya. Its manufacturers are expanding internationally, seeking new markets and production locations. The extent of Kenyan component manufacturing, local content and technology transfer remains unconfirmed.
SA has spent decades developing an automotive industry with established factories, component suppliers, engineering expertise, skilled employment and international export relationships.
Yet this industrial base faces increasing pressure from vehicle imports, declining competitiveness and uncertainty around localisation policy.
Particularly concerning is the re-emergence of semi-knocked-down (SKD) assembly in the light vehicle industry without enforceable deadlines for progression towards completely knocked-down (CKD) manufacturing.
SKD provides an entry point for investment. Its indefinite continuation allows manufacturers to operate with limited local content while established producers carry the considerable costs of deeper manufacturing and supplier development.
Government has acknowledged this concern and is considering time-bound transitions to CKD production. Implementation remains outstanding.
Kenya's proposed investment presents no established immediate threat to South African production. Its significance lies in Chinese automotive manufacturers pursuing new production opportunities across Africa while SA struggles to deepen localisation within its existing industrial base.
Investment capital follows commercial opportunity, market access and favourable operating conditions. China is pursuing those opportunities across Africa, while South Africa continues to tolerate arrangements that weaken incentives to manufacture components locally.
As international manufacturers establish production operations and commercial relationships elsewhere in Africa, South Africa risks surrendering future investment and industrial growth while its component manufacturing base comes under increasing pressure.
We have spent decades building an automotive industry. Allowing its manufacturing depth to erode while competing countries attract new investment is a costly failure of industrial policy and ex*****on.